Lots of chatter about the upcoming week. First, we should get something Tuesday night here in Balto, probably a couple of inches. Saturday’s definitely a bigger storm – where it’s bigger and what sort of precip is entailed is still pending. It has a better chance to effect the northlands that the previous storms.
Addendum
Looking like ~4 inches for Elkridge tonight, 3-7 across the area, with higher amounts north and west of the city.
Fri/Saturday is shaping up to be a foot for around here. Models are calling for 16 inches to DC. I’m going to keep it on the low side of all this – 10-14 for DC, 8-12 for Elkridge, 6-8 for Philly, interpolate as necessary. 3 or something in NYC.
Addendum 2/3 AM
I use the momentum rule to augment my interpretations of the forecasts. If the snow totals keep climbing, I make them climb more. By that rule, the numbers listed below are too low by, say 4 inches. This is going to be a big storm.
Unfortunately, the model guidance is also shifting north. Good news for Goshen, but a potential issue for us – if this is rain, even any rain, instead of all snow, those totals plummet. I’ll hold the course for now, but stay tuned.
Timing wise, this is going to have more in Friday than originally specified. I see Friday starting around midday, snowing through most of Saturday.
Keep your eyes open for next Tuesday time frame. This is undoubtedly one of the stormiest patterns we’ve had since I’ve been in MD. This is also a historically cold winter for us. Apparently the southern hemisphere has been warm, better be because the US and Europe are not helping to make 2010 the hottest year on record – a prediction that many in the climate community have made.
I find that you are more accurate about the weather than any of the websites I go to.
Good for you but what does that say about professional weather people?
As it turns out, I get this from weather people. I just know the good ones. My major sources are Joe Bastardi and Henry Margusity at Accuweather.com. Margusity tends toward the model party line and Bastardi tends toward the most drastic scenario (doomsday scenario), but they both do better than the local guys, who are so worried about being wrong that they withhold information until they’re sure that they are right.