Fine fine.
Friday through Saturday. 16+ for Baltimore, 8+ for NYC – it’s another big one. It’ll be bigger for more people than the mauler we got the day before my wedding. Sheesh.
Addendum 2/3/10
As far as I can tell, Elkridge has had 30 inches of snow so far this year. Average is somewhere like 20 inches. For reference, average snowfall for Goshen is probably around 40-50 inches.
We’re going to get over a foot Friday into Saturday. I’d say closer to 18 than 12.
Next Tuesday? Stay tuned, but it could be another big one. Could we crack 60 inches of snow this winter? Yup. Stormy, cold pattern have we here.
Addendum 2/4 AM
Remember that thing about the model amounts? They’re up to 16 inches now. I’ve never seen a model make such a bold prediction. If you and I are betting on 18 inches, I’d take the over at this point. Looks like it will start tomorrow around noon and end Saturday around 5 PM. 18-24 for Balto-DC, 16-20 for Philly, 6-12 for LBurg, 4-8 for NYC, 4-6 for Goshen. Something like that.
Addendum 2/4 AM later
Looks like my idea (or “my interpretation of their ideas”) is pretty well supported by the most recent snowfall map from Accuweather’s Henry Margusity. Try to make it more optimized for Elkridge, I dare you.
There’s a ton of liquid with this storm. The massive snowfalls will come if the temp drops even a tiny bit. The snowfall to liquid ratio is expected to be about 10 to 1 for my area – so if we get 20 inches, that would mean that 2 inches of precip fell (so 2 inches rain = 20 inches snow). If we are 3 degrees colder, that ratio will change to closer to 15-20 to 1. Now, colder temps pull some of the sting out of these storms, so there’s a limit on the amount of snow we can get, but shoot. Realistically, everything between 12 and 28 inches is still within the realm of possibility.
They do everything in all caps…
..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WITH NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE…HEAVY SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS…STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 16 TO 24 INCHES.
* TIMING…SNOW WILL BEGIN MID-MORNING FRIDAY…AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON…WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURRING BETWEEN
SUNSET FRIDAY TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE MOST HAZARDOUS WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT…WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE…PRODUCING NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.
* TEMPERATURES…HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY…TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
* WINDS…BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIMILAR TO THE 19 DECEMBER
STORM. PLAN FOR SUBSTANTIAL DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
When are we going to get some in PA?
6+ I think.
Wow, it looks like you are wearing the big snow bullseye. You could have 30″ of snow on the ground by this time next week. Have fun with that.
NWS is saying 20-28 for us now. Hunker down Furst!
How much did you get last weekend? My parents got 7 inches in southern VA. Do you still have leftovers on the ground? NYC will have another weak result. Boo!
Now they’re saying 20-30. We got 5.2 last weekend, but all gone now.
I’m sure you’ve already seen this Furst, but here you go anyway:
LOOKING BACK AT THE BIGGEST STORM OF RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC… THE JANUARY 1922 KNICKERBOCKER STORM… 28.0 INCHES OF SNOW WAS PRODUCED FROM 3.02 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER. CURRENT FORECASTS FOR THIS EVENT HAVE TOTAL LIQUID FALLING FROM THIS STORM APPROACHING 3 INCHES… WHICH ACCORDINGLY WOULD CREATE A SNOWFALL THAT WILL RIVAL THE KNICKERBOCKER STORM TOTAL. GENERALLY ACROSS THE REGION… 20 TO 30 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL BY SATURDAY EVENING.
BALTIMORES RECORD OF 26.8 INCHES FROM THE PRESIDENTS DAY FEBRUARY 2003 STORM WILL ALSO BE THREATENED.
I’ve been all over it. I’m actually at work, sitting on the roof of the building, no less. It’s already coming down pretty well.
I don’t think we’ll quite get those numbers, but this is definitely the end of the world, let me tell you.
I, for one, am thoroughly shocked that you haven’t updated your blog since yesterday. I keep checking. How can you leave me to my own devices??
Northern Virginia is coming to a standstill already. I’ve begun drawing up blueprints for our tunnel to freedom. The baby and dog will be putting in the buttresses overnight.
There’s not much to update. I’m still thinking around 20 inches for us. Here’s a wrinkle – you might get some thundersnow tonight. More further east, but we could get a few booms too – to go along with 2 inch an hour snowfall rates. That’s worth waking up and watching.
My first thoughts with this storm coming were of the suspect roof to my shed, Jenn’s father’s flight to Dulles from California, and how I would get to work if I were to get called in. Really though, what a treat to be around for a storm system that could potentially be historic. Please keep us updated with how things are going up your way.